Connect with us
Active Currencies 14534
Market Cap $2,695,332,618,361.53
Bitcoin Share 49.58%
24h Market Cap Change $-0.13

A daily close above $52K and…? Here’s what a long-term Bitcoin rally needs

2min Read

Share this article

Bitcoin’s price rallied exponentially on 28 February, with the same fueling an explosion in alts’ values. While this move is bullish in the short-term, the bull rally over a high time frame (HTF) perspective has not kick-started yet.

A breakdown of BTC’s crucial areas

Despite the recent upswing, the twelve-hour chart for BTC showed that Bitcoin has not set a higher high to even get the ball rolling for an HTF bull run. Moreover, the presence of the weekly supply zone, stretching from $45,550 to $51,993, makes it difficult to be optimistic.

Even if bulls push BTC to pierce the said supply zone, a lack of buying pressure could lead to rejection. Moreover, the formation of a triple tap setup on the twelve-hour chart seemed to suggest that Bitcoin is likely to pull a 180 and head lower.

The primary targets include $40,377 – Indicating an 8.6% downswing from its press time position. In some cases, BTC could head as low as $38,895 – The upper limit of the daily demand zone ranging up to $36,398.

For now, the short-term bearish outlook is limited to $36,398. A bounce off the aforementioned demand zone will likely trigger another run-up that attempts to shatter the weekly supply zone.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

Supporting this short-term bearish outlook is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This indicator is used to assess the average profit/loss of investors who purchased BTC tokens over the past year.

A negative value below -10% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss. It is typically where long-term holders tend to accumulate. Therefore, a value below -10% is often referred to as an “opportunity zone.”

Due to the recent upswing, the 30-day MVRV value went up from -7% to 8% in roughly a week. This move indicates that short-term holders who purchased BTC in the past month are in profit. These investors could offload their BTC holdings to book profits, leading to a short-term downswing. 

Interestingly, the last time 30-day MVRV spiked up to 11%, BTC’s price dropped by 20%. Therefore, if history repeats itself, BTC could be due for a short-term crash. This outlook aligns perfectly with the technical perspective, adding credence to the correction thesis.

Source: Santiment

Requirements for a bull run

To give the long-term bull run a chance, BTC needs two confirmations –

  1. BTC needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $52,000 – As a secondary confirmation, the weekly candlestick also needs to be above this level
  2. The second condition is for BTC to produce after a daily/weekly close above $52,000

If these conditions are met, one could contemplate Bitcoin’s price heading back to $60,000 or even a new all-time high at $80,000 or $100,000.


Jibin Mathew George is Editor-in-Chief at AMBCrypto. A domain expert in International Relations (European Politics), he has always been a believer in the unlimited possibilities afforded by blockchain and by extension, cryptocurrencies. As someone who has been watching and writing about this space for over 5 years now, Jibin has closely tracked the emergence of cryptos and digital assets as a separate asset class in portfolios world over. A lawyer by training, he previously contributed to the News and Research desk of Diplomacy & Beyond Plus. Before his stint at D&B, he was Editor at ED Times. Jibin also takes a great interest in politics, especially the corresponding effect political decisions and fiscal policy have on the world of finance, with a special focus on cryptocurrencies.
Read the best crypto stories of the day in less than 5 minutes
Subscribe to get it daily in your inbox.
Please check the format of your first name and/or email address.

Thank you for subscribing to Unhashed.