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Filecoin [FIL] market weakens, but investors can still profit here

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Filecoin [FIL] market weakens, but investors can still profit here

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  • FIL faced price rejection at $3.024.
  • A possible price recovery could set FIL to settle at $2.951.
  • A break above $3.024 will negate the above forecast.

Filecoin (FIL) rallied on 20 December, recording over 9% gains for investors after hitting a high of $3.084. However, price recovery followed, clearing about half of the profits. Recent rally attempts haven’t helped investors recover their losses, but there could be an opening.

At press time, FIL was in a price pullback that could settle at $2.951 if the momentum persisted. This could offer a short-selling opportunity. 

Read Filecoin (FIL) price prediction 2023-24

Will FIL drop lower?

Source: FIL/USDT on TradingView

At press time, FIL was hanging loosely between 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and seemed poised for a further downtrend. Although the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator showed a sharp rise, the accumulation phase could be interrupted, given the drop in trading volumes and increased selling pressure.

In particular, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had a gentle downtrend after a recent smooth rise. It was at 44, slightly shy of the 50-neutral mark. This indicates that buying pressure increased recently but faced opposition as selling pressure increased by the time of publication. 

The On Balance Volume (OBV) also recorded a gentle downward trend, indicating that volumes dipped slightly. Such a dip could undermine buying pressure and give more leverage to sellers. 

As such, sellers could push FIL down to the 13-period EMA of $2.971, 61.8% Fib level of $2.951, or retest previous support at 50% Fib level ($2.899). These can act as short-selling targets with the stop loss at the 78.6% Fib level ($3.024).

A move beyond $3.024 will invalidate the bearish forecast. Such a move will give the bulls a new resistance target at $3.084. 

How much Filecoin (FIL) can I get for $1?

FIL recorded a drop in demand in the derivatives markets

Source: Coinglass

The demand for FIL in the derivatives market dropped sharply from 16 December as per Coinglass. FIL’s open interest had fallen from about $90M to below $60M within a week. That translates to about a 30% demand drop across major exchanges, with Binance taking the most significant hit.

Source: Coinglass

FIL’s open interest in Binance went from about $48M on 16 December to below $33M on 23 December. Put differently, about $15M flowed out of FIL’s derivative markets in the Binance exchange alone.

If the trend continues, selling pressure could push FIL lower. But a bullish BTC can reverse the direction and move FIL towards the 26-period EMA of $3.027, that almost coincides with the 78.6% Fib level of $3.024. 


Saman Waris works as a News Editor at AMBCrypto. She has always been fascinated by how the tides of finance and technology shape communities across demographics. Cryptocurrencies are of particular interest to Saman, with much of her writing centered around understanding how ideas like Momentum and Greater Fool theories apply to altcoins, specifically, memecoins. A graduate in history, Saman worked the sports beat before diving into crypto. Prior to joining AMBCrypto 2 years ago, Saman was a News Editor at Sportskeeda. This was preceded by her stint as Editor-in-Chief at EssentiallySports.
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