Many in the crypto-community are eagerly awaiting the altcoin season, with the same expected to set the stage for profits for most of the market.
However, the impending arrival of the season was canceled midway due to the crash of May 2022. In fact, it pushed the advent of the season by several months.
Altcoin season?
An altcoin season sets in when the performance of 75% of the top-50 cryptocurrencies is better than that of Bitcoin. When the reverse of the same transpires, Bitcoin season comes to the fore.
Now, as reported by AMBCrypto towards the end of March this year, the altseason was expected to materialize within the next few weeks. In fact, it almost did too.
By the end of April, as indicated by the altseason index, the market was halfway through. All it needed was a trigger to precipitate the start of the altseason.
However, the sudden crash of the Terra ecosystem triggered a market-wide crash, dragging the value of all cryptocurrencies below the $1 trillion mark. By extension, this led to the altcoin season being pushed even more.
Altcoin Season index | Source: Blockchain Center
Soon after, Bitcoin’s dominance hiked to a 10-month high of 48%. In fact, some are already calling it a Bitcoin season.
Bitcoin dominance | Source: TradingView – AMBCrypto
Now, at the time of writing, the market had risen above the threshold of the Bitcoin season thanks to gradual recovery over the last three months. This is now giving investors hopes of an incoming altcoin season.
Alas, the same can take anywhere between two to five months, if past transitions are taken into consideration.
It is likely that the altseason might only arrive by the end of this year (December 2022). This, because the correlation of Bitcoin with stock indices has hit 0.63 for S&P 500 and 0.59 with the DOW.
Bitcoin stock index correlation | Source: Blockchain Center
Given that the world economy is no closer to recovery, BTC will keep the rest of the market subdued as well.
Ergo, combined with the delay of two months since July and a wait until December is how the altseason has been postponed by seven months.
However, this is not a sure-shot buy sign yet since all indicators are only flashing a sell signal right now.
For instance, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart revealed that the next best buy signal would arrive when BTC is closer to $27k. A further hike in the same would fuel more accumulation.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart | Source: Blockchain Center
