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Analysis

Why a delayed breakout looks possible for Bitcoin

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The Bitcoin market has been choppy, as prices struggled to decisively close above $50,000. Over the past week and a half, prices have oscillated within the range of $46K-$50K and a clear trend has not yet emerged. While large investors were in accumulation mode, the king coin faced a high amount of selling pressure by retail investors.

Moreover, even as the aforementioned range has been problematic for BTC in the past, prices were expected to shoot north as a bullish pattern developed on the charts. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $49,896, up by 0.4% over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-hour Chart

Source: BTC/USD, TradingView

Bitcoin’s movement, since late-July seemed to be a mirror image of its run in late-January. On 27 January, BTC’s prices kicked off a strong rally from the $30,000 mark. From there, it found a resting ground at $37,000 and pushed towards $48,000.

As buying pressure eased, prices fell into a bit of a lull and took over a week to climb above $50,000. Now, switching to BTC’s latest price movement, it showed a similar trend and an ascending triangle in formation. Higher lows were plotted along a bottom trendline, while $50K formed the upper trendline.

However, a more precise close above $51,050 was required to heighten chances of a breakout. Some important areas rested at the 123.6%, 138.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels. In case of a strong wave of selling pressure, the $46,000 level could come under pressure once again, but a breakdown would be unlikely.

Reasoning 

Since early-August, the RSI has traded within the confines of a horizontal channel. The fact that BTC has tested the overbought zone on multiple occasions, outlined bullish market strength. A rise above the upper trendline would now indicate the onset of a price swing.

The Awesome Oscillator has also advanced recently. Two higher peaks meant that buyers were making progress. On the other hand, MACD approached a bearish crossover and hinted at a near-term decline.

Conclusion

BTC was preparing for an ascending triangle breakout  and the Fibonacci tool was used to highlight potential areas of interest. However, the indicators were yet to surpass important levels which meant that a breakout would be delayed as opposed to an immediate hike.

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A business graduate with a keen interest in emerging markets across South East Asia. As a financial journalist, he covered stocks and market reports across Australia and New Zealand as well.