- BTC ends 2022 at the $16,500 price range.
- On-chain data points to a further depreciation in BTC’s value in the coming year.
Despite closing the 2022 trading year within the $16,500 price range, on-chain data suggested that Bitcoin’s [BTC] price would experience a further decline in 2023.
A 0.45x cutback if BTC hits Ethereum’s market cap?
CryptoQuant analyst oinonen_t found that BTC’s current Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) distribution exhibited similar characteristics to that of the 2019 bear market, which Delphi Digital successfully used to forecast a market capitulation.
In January 2019, Delphi Digital analyzed BTC’s UTXO age trends and compared their progress in previous cycles.
0/ Since December, our team has continued to state our belief that $BTC would bottom by Q1 2019. Today, we are excited to share an updated #Bitcoin Outlook report where we walk through why we continue to believe the bottom is in. Read more here: https://t.co/920MD8d7fk
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) May 2, 2019
The research firm analyzed the percentage of unspent Bitcoin that had been untouched for different periods of time. This ranged from less than three months to over five years.
It found that as the number of coins that were untouched for at least one year had increased, the number of UTXOs untouched for at least one year decreased as well.
This led to the research firm concluding that long-term BTC holders had commenced accumulation. It then likened to the one that occurred at the end of 2014. It then predicted a price bottom in the first quarter of 2019.
What do Bitcoin analysts say?
Likening BTC’s current UTXO to that of early 2019, oinonen_t found,
“While the retail 1M-3M wave (green) mirrors a positive sentiment, longer timeframes like 3Y-5Y (red) clearly show de-risking. The shorter-term traders 3M-6M (orange) are still reeling from heavy losses. However, the institutional level 2Y-3Y (deep blue) shows signs of accumulation.”
Also, predicting a further decline in BTC’s price in 2023, another CryptoQuant analyst, Ghoddusifar, spotted a gradual movement of BTC’s Netflow into the positive region. This meant that sellers saturated the BTC market. Ghoddusifar said,
“This means fewer buyers and more sellers. Probably, at the same time as it becomes positive, we will see a local top and then an increase in selling pressure in the future market, which can lead to the continuation of the downtrend and loss of current support.”
Are your BTC holdings flashing green? Check the Profit Calculator
Offering a hint of hope, CryptoQuant analyst Nino assessed BTC’s Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) dominance on a daily chart and found that BTC’s long-term outlook had flipped from bearish to neutral.
According to Nino, the daily exchange inflow of BTC UTXOs that are less than one year old to two years old rose above 20%. This indicated an increase in trading activity for BTC within this age band.