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Bitcoin: <48 hours to go, but all eyes on PlanB's 100K Christmas estimate

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Those in the crypto-community who were watching PlanB’s stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin were banking on the king coin giving investors a Christmas present by hitting 100k.

However, with less than 48 hours to go before 25 December, investors and analysts must now wrangle with the question of how to treat the S2F model.

Sashay away?

For his part, PlanB admitted that Bitcoin needs a “small miracle” to hit $100,000 by Christmas day. Even so, the analyst made it clear that he isn’t giving up on S2F just yet.

This is a far cry from PlanB’s comments in the summer, when the anonymous analyst argued that he would consider S2F “invalidated” if Bitcoin didn’t reach $100,000 by December or 31 December.

When Plan B was called out on this shift in analysis, other experts wondered what really is the right approach to take.

Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo, for instance, pointed out that Plan B isn’t the authority who will decide when S2F is invalidated – even if he is the one who created the model.

Meanwhile, Blockstream co-founder Adam Back remarked that a model is only as good as its inputs. According to Back, errors have to be expected even if the model holds true in the end.

Two models stand before me, but…

The cracks started appearing in November when Bitcoin failed to hit its $98,000 target that month. However, this was linked to PlanB’s floor model. Many investors were feeling the chills, but PlanB confirmed that S2F was still in action. About the floor model, he explained,

“…I see that as an outlier and probably a V-shaped recovery after that. And then if that does not happen, so if we also miss the December [price], then the floor model is out of the window and broken. But a model – I think  that’s a good point to make – a model is not broken by the first miss.”

And then, came the December crash. Now it remains to be seen if the floor model will again miss its targets this month.

We were all rooting for you!

At press time, Bitcoin was worth $48,342.04. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index flashed a value of 34, signaling the sentiment of fear.

Despite what analysts have to say about Bitcoin S2F existing separately from its creator, thousands of investors will surely be watching Plan B’s December target and by extension, PlanB himself.

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Sahana is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. She has a Masters in Journalism and her areas of study include crypto-regulation, digital society, privacy, and intersectionality. Ask her about film photography and philately.

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